While automatic gearboxes can handle more power, manual transmissions are not disappearing just yet.
The head of BMW M, Frank van Meel, recently stirred debate by stating that the manual gearbox “doesn’t really make sense from a technical standpoint.” According to him, this transmission limits engine torque, while an automatic gearbox can fully exploit the power delivered by the inline six-cylinder, a true emblem of the brand. Although engineers have the capability to develop a more robust manual transmission, cost remains a significant barrier to this initiative.
Demand for manual gearboxes has considerably declined. One might argue that sales could rebound if more brands offered three-pedal models. However, investing in a new manual gearbox that risks low commercial success remains a tough decision to justify. That said, BMW is not entirely giving up on providing drivers the option to change gears themselves.
According to Sylvia Neubauer, vice president of the M division responsible for customer relations and sales, the brand is not yet ready to turn the page on the manual gearbox. She told Automobilwoche that engineers are working on a solution that would retain the clutch pedal while continuing to advance the 3.0-litre engine. Without providing too many details, she “promises a solution,” according to the German media.
Restricting Engines to Save the Manual Gearbox?
As for what this might mean for the future of manual models at BMW, the brand may consider artificially limiting engine power to ensure the longevity of this transmission. This has already been the case for some time: the M2 with an automatic gearbox boasts an additional 50 Nm of torque compared to the same model equipped with a manual gearbox.
With or without a manual gearbox in the lineup, BMW is not turning its back on thermal-powered sports cars. Even as electric M models loom on the horizon, the future of combustion remains secure in Munich. The brand has already confirmed that a new generation of M3 with a six-cylinder is expected by 2028. This timeline suggests that this sports saloon will continue to exist into the 2030s, when a wide range of electric M models is set to be offered.
Even though the next M3 will not feature a manual gearbox, there is still time to acquire the current generation. The latter is expected to take its bow by late 2026 or early 2027, as the 3 Series prepares to evolve into a new generation. In the meantime, BMW has already removed one model from its manual gearbox offerings: the Z4 M40i. This roadster will cease production this month, leaving only the M2, M3, and M4 available with this transmission.
The Manual Gearbox Holds On, For Now
The M2 and M4 coupes could remain in production until the end of the decade, giving enthusiasts about three more years to acquire a BMW M equipped with a six-speed manual gearbox. Nevertheless, the future does not look bright for mechanical transmissions. This is not only due to low order rates and limited power; Frank van Meel also mentioned higher fuel consumption as an additional argument against these gearboxes. A point that may seem trivial to some performance enthusiasts.
However, the tightening of emissions standards is inevitably accelerating the decline of manual gearboxes. If a manufacturer can achieve lower CO₂ levels with an automatic gearbox, it quickly becomes vulnerable to new regulations. In Europe, where every gram counts to avoid hefty fines, manufacturers are compelled to optimise their offerings.
Suppliers are also not particularly motivated to produce small volumes of manual gearboxes; economies of scale are harder to achieve for products that sell less. Furthermore, with the increasing complexity of driver assistance systems designed primarily to work with automatic gearboxes, every technological advance seems to seal the fate of mechanical transmissions a little more.
