Tesla’s sales figures have fallen like a guillotine: a decrease of nearly 9% in 2025, relegating the American manufacturer behind BYD for the first time. A hard blow for the icon of electric vehicles, but perhaps the beginning of a new era?
Figures that speak for themselves
The much-anticipated annual sales of Tesla have finally been revealed, and the results are far from glorious. On January 2, the American manufacturer announced that 418,000 cars were delivered in the fourth quarter, bringing the total to 1.64 million for the entire year. These figures almost exactly match analysts’ forecasts, but leave a bitter taste.
For the second consecutive year, Tesla has recorded a decline in its deliveries. Indeed, the manufacturer had already sold 1.79 million vehicles in 2024 and 1.81 million in 2023. This time, the drop is almost staggering: a decrease of nearly 9% compared to the previous year. Worse still, for the first time, Tesla finds itself trailing BYD, which announced 2,254,714 battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in 2025, an increase of 28% compared to 2024, according to CarNewsChina.
Tesla’s sales figures for the 4th quarter and for the entire year 2025 Photo: Tesla
A contrasting final quarter
Although the overall figures are concerning, it is worth noting that fourth-quarter sales represent a slight increase compared to the second quarter. However, when scrutinising the delivery graph, it is evident that Tesla struggles to break the barrier of 500,000 cars per quarter. A bit like a runner who stagnates at the end of their race, despite the adrenaline of the final metres.
Tesla deliveries by quarter
An anticipation that is fading
The stagnation in deliveries did not catch everyone by surprise. The third quarter had been particularly strong due to a rush to purchase before the expiration of tax exemptions for electric vehicles. The anticipation of quarterly figures had led Tesla to publish a compilation of analysts’ estimates, which turned out to be almost accurate with a projection of 1.64 million deliveries for the year.
Analysts’ estimates on Tesla’s sales figures Photo: Tesla
Hopes for a recovery
For the coming years, from 2026 to 2029, experts are, however, more optimistic. They predict significant growth, particularly starting in 2027. According to their estimates, the two million sales mark could be surpassed, while in 2029, more than three million Teslas could be sold for the first time. It is safe to say that the manufacturer still has ambitions, even if its initial target of 20 million sales by 2030 seems to have been set aside.
But where will this anticipated growth come from? Eyes are turning towards the autonomous model Cybercab, which is expected to enter production in April 2026. This two-door, steering wheel-less robotaxi could well become the centrepiece of Tesla’s strategy. Currently, a few autonomous Model Ys are already circulating in limited areas like San Francisco and Austin, but their large-scale deployment remains contingent on regulatory changes.
Tesla Cybercab: The two-door robotaxi is expected to be built starting in April 2026.
A redefined electric future
Besides the Cybercab, new lightweight versions of the Model 3 and Y could also help boost sales, although their impact has yet to be felt in the fourth-quarter figures. Other models like the Roadster and the Semi truck seem destined to remain in a niche without significantly impacting overall volumes.
Experts from major banks like Barclays and Morgan Stanley have also anticipated a significant volume in the field of energy storage systems. They had forecasted around 46 GWh of storage capacity, a figure that has proven to be close to reality. For the future, demand for the Powerwall, as well as for the Powerpack and Megapack, is expected to increase significantly. By 2029, it is anticipated that more than 140 GWh will be reached, representing a true tripling.
In summary: a delicate turning point
In conclusion, it is rare to see Tesla publish such unflattering figures without a strategic communication to prepare investors. This announcement could hint at an unexpected fragility for a company that has long shone through its innovation. The optimistic estimates from analysts for the coming years seem to contradict the realities of the market. For many, Tesla’s future appears uncertain, and it will be interesting to follow the evolution of sales in an increasingly fierce competitive context.
